The Herald, September 2021
2020, the historian Adam Tooze writes in Shutdown, his bracing account of the Covid pandemic and its protracted political aftermath, was “merely a moment in a process of escalation”, a trial-run for the “systemic mega-crises” to come. The “shocks of the Anthropocene”, he warns, aren’t going to arrive “in neat sequence.”
Tooze is dazzled by the power of two radically different institutions: the Chinese Communist Party under Xi Jinping and the US Federal Reserve. Beijing’s hardline response to the virus meant that China had effectively contained its domestic Covid outbreak by the end of February last year – just as the chaotic liberal democracies of the West were beginning to grapple with the reality of SARS-CoV-2. At the same time, without the extraordinary borrowing and liquidity measures enacted by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the entire global financial system would have buckled under the weight of an unprecedented economic contraction. Over three billion adults were furloughed or forced to work from home during the first half of last year, Tooze writes. 1.6 billion children had their educations disrupted. $10 trillion worth of earnings were lost. Never before have so many people simultaneously suffered “such serious interruption to their daily lives.”
Foreign Policy, June 2021
Late last year, the New York Times christened the United Kingdom “plague island.” In recent months, that epithet has lost some of its edge. The country’s COVID-19 vaccination program has been hugely effective. Just over 28 million Brits — almost half the country’s population — have been fully dosed against the virus; death and hospitalization rates have plummeted. Prime Minister Boris Johnson promises spring and summer will be “seasons of hope,” with social distancing rules relaxed and economic restrictions lifted.
But in a devastating, blow-by-blow account, investigative reporters Jonathan Calvert and George Arbuthnott argue that nothing the Tory leader says about COVID-19 can or should be taken at face value. Despite the striking turnaround exhibited by the vaccine rollout, Calvert and Arbuthnott contend in their recent book, Failures of State, that policies implemented throughout the pandemic failed to prevent Britain’s grim absolute mortality figures (the highest in Europe, in absolute numbers) and the severity of its recession (the deepest in the G7).
Bella Caledonia, February 2021
It’s amazing how quickly history repeats itself in the realm of economics. In the immediate aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, in both London and Washington, there was a clear political consensus in favour of stimulus policies aimed at rescuing the global economy from collapse. But that consensus disintegrated quickly.
After a period of sustained stimulus spending under Gordon Brown, Britain embraced austerity in 2010, with the election of the Cameron / Clegg coalition government. The US followed suit three years later, in 2013, when Barack Obama – whose initial fiscal response to the Great Recession was already weak – signed off on $1.2 trillion worth of cuts as part of a bipartisan budget deal with the Republicans.
Bella Caledonia, June 2020
Six weeks ago, Boris Johnson dismissed the idea of using spending cuts to pay off Britain’s rapidly-inflating coronavirus debts. “I’ve never particularly liked the term that you just used to describe government economic policy and it will certainly not be part of our approach,” the prime minister told a reporter during a Downing Street press conference on 30 April. “Austerity, by the way, was the term you just used.”
At first glance, the explosion of state expenditure triggered by COVID-19 seems to have been embraced by the Conservative Party. According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, the UK’s deficit will hit 15 per cent of GDP by the end of 2020 and public debt will top 115 per cent by the middle of 2021. These are staggering figures — at the height of the 2008 financial crisis, Britain’s deficit didn’t exceed 11 per cent of GDP.
POLITICO, June 2020
Nicola Sturgeon is having a good crisis — on paper, at least.
According to an Ipsos MORI poll published on May 26, 82 percent of Scots think the Scottish National Party (SNP) leader — who heads up Scotland’s semi-autonomous government in Edinburgh — is handling the coronavirus outbreak well and a further 78 percent believe her administration at Holyrood has made the right decisions over the course of the pandemic.
VICE, April 2020
In recent years, the rapid ascent of renewables has eaten into an ever bigger share of the global energy market. Even back in 2018, think tanks were projecting fossil fuel price declines, increased competition, and stranded assets.
With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, however, the carbon sector is truly beginning to spiral: U.S. crude prices have sunk below $20 a barrel and widespread job losses are all but guaranteed.